There are lots of questions about the impact electricity will have on the repair shop of tomorrow – but just as many conversations are being held about what’s going on right now. This article, originally published by David Sickels, editor of ShopOwner’s sister publication The Buzz, shares information from IDTechEx analysts, who take a look at the key events and trends from the future mobility world over the past year – and look ahead to 2022.
BIG MARKET SPLASHES: TESLA THE TECH GIANT, HUGE IPOS & SPACS
If there is one thing you have heard about electric vehicles this past year, it has probably been about Tesla reaching tech-giant status. In November 2021, Tesla surpassed a $1 trillion market cap, driven by a slightly confused order from Hertz for 100,000 full-price Tesla electric cars (contracts were apparently unsigned while deliveries began).
More generally, Tesla’s stock is high because investors are betting on the company’s potential. Despite its huge achievements, Tesla is still only at the beginning of its S-curve. Today, Tesla is hitting sales targets (the company approached 1 million car sales in 2021) and demonstrating it can turn a consistent profit. In addition, its new giga-factories will help it reach its goal to sell 20 million cars annually by 2030 (more than a fifth of global car sales today).
Assuming an average of $30k per Tesla car, reaching even a quarter of this goal equals revenues of $150 billion. This is without considering its growing energy business or the potential of future technologies, such as autonomy. While Tesla is also working on electric trucks, IDTechEx expects passenger cars to remain the most profitable electric vehicle market now and in the future, and the main driver for Tesla’s growth.
Tesla’s successes are paving the way for others. Rivian, backed by Ford and Amazon, became public early in November 2021 to the tune of $93 billion. Hundred-year-old Ford’s stock has been rallying itself this year, but its market cap still sits below Rivian’s at $77.7 billion.
Rivian’s traditional IPO rode against the SPAC trend opted for by numerous others (SPACS can be viewed as easier with less valuation risk than a traditional IPO). SPAC IPOs have been across the board in terms of company type, and this is no exception within the electric vehicle industry: from charging infrastructure companies (Tritium) to vehicle makers (Lucid Motors, Nikola) to electric sky taxis (Lilium). The results have been mixed – both disastrous (Nikola) and successful.
What is clear is there has and will continue to be plenty of drama around electric vehicle start-ups moving into 2022 as they continue to generate massive interest and hype, ill-founded or not, and make and break fortunes.
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