In the first of three keynote sessions at AAPEX 2017, speaker Neal Ganguli, automotive supplier consulting leader, Deloitte Consulting LLP, focused on the future of the mobility and the impact on the automotive aftermarket value chain.

“There are disruptive consumer, economic and technology trends that each of you have been dealing with for many years,” said Ganguli. “What is unique right now is that several key ones that drive transformation – consumer preferences, regulatory forces, economics and technological advancement – are converging together, and that has the potential to drive huge transformation.”

Using two dimensions – vehicle control and vehicle ownership – Ganguli identified the future states of mobility as: personally owned, driver driven; shared-driver driven; personally owned autonomous; and shared autonomous.

“These future states represent the main ways individuals will travel for personal mobility needs,” said Ganguli. He explained that the rise of shared and autonomous will drive down cost-per-mile economics and that these four states will coexist. “Companies need to plan to compete in some or all of them.”

With shared mobility, Ganguli’s forecast for the United States is an increase in total miles traveled, and a decline in overall vehicle sales, with faster shifts toward autonomous vehicles and shared vehicles in urban centers.

Ganguli outlined key considerations for aftermarket players, including the fact that higher vehicle utilization in shared mobility will drive more frequent parts maintenance and replacement and vehicle service needs. Other considerations include the evolution of vehicle content, customer and channel structure disruption, value chain leapfrogging and the creation of new business models and revenue streams.

To sum up the impact on the aftermarket value chain, Ganguli outlined the following:

• Parts manufacturers need to consider shift in content and usage cycles, presenting both risks, as well as opportunities;
• OEMs are figuring out ways to extend their service footprint to consumers;
• Dealers and independent retailers are trying to reconfigure their value propositions to deal with direct online channels and the rise of “subscription model” services, rather than providing one-time parts/service purchases;
• And, consumers have a plethora of choices – it’s all about economics, speed and convenience.